News
3/11/24

Total US Gas Supply Analysis

Ryan Rice
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Following up on my previous post centered around modeling out Total US Oil Supply - wanted to take a moment to share with the community how a die-hard Reservoir Engineer views and models Total US Gas Supply.

Before getting into the model, I think it’s important to note that if you believe in decarbonizing the planet, you should support #UnleashingUSLNG.This is the largest green initiative on the planet ✅. There is no practical argument to be made against exporting LNG by anyone who claims to be in favor of lowering carbon emissions. Anyone who is against the US exporting LNG is, by proxy, in favor of burning more foreign coal (and increasing carbon emissions).

Some facts:

1. 🦍 There should be no surprise here, but the US (again) is a POWER HOUSE. Unconventional shale has unlocked QUADRILLIONS of cubic feet of natural gas that has not only powered and heated our homes for the last ~15 years, but has the ability to do so for the next 100+ years, easy.

2. ⚖️The market is IN CHECK. Recent voluntary production and rig cuts by nation’s top producers have eased the supply glut we experienced this winter. - Marcellus is currently short on rig rates, with an anticipated ~55-62 rigs (versus ~46 rigs today) required to maintain flat production at ~34 BCFPD.- Haynesville too is currently short on rig rates, with an anticipated ~70-75 rigs (versus ~49 rigs today) required to maintain flat production at ~17 BCFPD.- When considering the prior post on Total US Oil Supply, we showed ~638 oil rigs maintaining ~flat oil production, which according to our model is more than sufficient to offset anticipated declines in shale gas basins...-- When it’s all said and done, ~638 oil rigs could offset this shale gas decline, potentially growing overall Total US Gas Supply by ~1.6+ BCFPD YoY.

3. 🚀 If all we did is run ~156 Shale Gas Rigs (+52 Rigs from Today), Overall Total US Gas Production would grow +50BCFPD by 2030, or +8.8 BCFPD YoY 💪

- #UnleashingUSLNG and increasing shale gas rig counts from 104 to 156 (+52 Rigs from Today) to grow production to ~178BCFPD by 2030 would displace roughly 1.27 billion tonnes of foreign coal consumption per year, and therefore reduce total global emissions by a minimum of ~1.1 billion tonnes of CO2e per year.

- 💚 The emissions reduction impact of an unleashed US LNG scenario is EQUIVALENT to:

1. Electrifying every US passenger vehicle on the road.

2. Powering every home in America with 100% rooftop solar and backup battery packs.

3. Adding 50,000+ industrial-scale windmills, thereby doubling Total US Wind capacity.

🦍 #UnleashUSLNG is all (3) of these things: COMBINED!

Assumptions:

- This is a simplified, top-down, synthetic model of total US Gas production, encompassing basins ranging from the Marcellus and Haynesville gas giants, to the associated gas in shale oil basins like the Permian, Williston, Eagle Ford, Rockies, and Mid-Con.

  • Understanding the nuances of modeling Gas Supply due to shale oil associated gas production, we consider maintenance to come only from oil rigs, with ~638 oil rigs drilling ~400 MMcf/1k’ type rock with respect to 30YR associated gas stream EURs.
  • We consider growth to come from gas rigs, with ~156 gas rigs drilling 1.20 BCF/1k’ type rock with respect to 30YR dry gas stream EURs.
  • In this scenario, on a 5-6yr run rate to 2030, 756 total rigs (638 oil, 156 gas) deliver 180+BCFPD by 2030.
  • Alternatively, another way to look at it is if all oil rigs were to lay down flat today, it would take ~230 shale gas rigs to replace the supply the 638 oil rigs delivered and maintain today’s ~122 BCFPD flat. In this alternative universe where all oil rigs lay down, and we still want to grow production +50BCFPD by 2030, then total gas rig count would be 386 (230 maintenance + 156 wedge).

- What matters MOST is Total HZ Feet drilled per month, or annualized. It is more effective to model supply through this lens, as it allows separate sensitivity around drill times & timing.

  • 105-110 MM HZ Feet of shale oil holds Total US Gas flat with modest 1.6BCFPD YoY growth, and only 20 MM HZ Feet of additional shale gas #UnleashesUSLNG

- We assume an overall P50 of 20.3 days spud to TD, 9,400’ effective lateral length, and average Spud to Sales lag of ~7 months

- We stop modeling additional activity/new drills post 12/2030, hence the decline we can observe towards the tail end of the charts below

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